Monday, December 16, 2013

Silver faces short-term resistance at 20.50 2013-12-16

Technical outlook and chart setups: The metal pulled back from the 0.382 fibonacci resistance at 20.40/50 levels for now. Though further upside cannot be ruled out completely, 21.50 would be the level to watch for major resistance as it is the 0.618 fibonacci retracement. Also, the channel line resistance would be passing through 21.50 in 1-2 days time. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch reaction at 21.50 before committing short positions. Resistance is spread through 21.50, 22.00, 23.00 and 25.00; while support is fixed at sub 18.00 levels respectively. On the flip side, if 19.00 level is broken now; it would be confirmed that the metal is targeting 17.50 levels.
Trading recommendations: Flat for now. Good luck!

Gold bearish below 1,270.00. 2013-12-16

Technical outlook and chart setups: As depicted here, the recent rally from 1,211.00 levels last week was reversed from 1,268/69 levels; which were past support turned resistance. Till the time prices are below 1,270/75 levels, it is recommended to refrain from buying. Also please note that the down channel line is still intact and we need to see a clear breakout above 1,300.00 levels to rule out further downside. Support is fixed at 1,210.00 and 1,180.00 levels; while resistance is line up around 1,300.00 levels, followed by 1,350.00 and 1,440.00 respectively. However, a push through 1,300.00 levels and subsequently 1,350.00 would enforce a trend reversal and change our trading strategy.  
Trading recommendations: Flat for now. Good luck!

Gold analysis for December 16, 2013

Price action in Gold has not made things any clearer with the current wave structure. There are two very possible scenarios still very possible and valid. The first scenario implies that wave 5 is not over yet and we should expect a new lower low towards 1,180-1,200. The second scenario implies that the decline from 1,360 is over and the upward correction still valid. This wave count is shown with red letters below. The breaking below 1,220-1,210 will increase the chances of the first scenario. If prices continue to trade above 1,220-1,210, it will put the basis for another leg up towards 1,275-1,300. The trend is not clear and that is why we should respect if any important price level is broken. Therefore, bulls have more chances as long as prices trade above 1,220-1,210. The daily chart continues to show that the longer-term trend is downward. The important high is at 1,268 in the short term and 1,360 in the longer term. Our longer term view remains bearish with 1,140-1,100 as target from the Head-and-Shoulders pattern

Monday, December 9, 2013

High demand for gold in China 2013-12-09

China is one of the world's largest producers of the yellow metal, but not a single bar leaves the country. It mainly relies on imports. October was China's second highest month of gold, according to HK customs data. In 2011 and 2012 combined China imported more gold than in 2013. Year to date China's gross gold imports now amounted to just over 1260 tons mainly through HK. India raised import tax to control CAD which crack down the gold imports. In the last 6 months the Indian govt apply 80: 20 rule. This rule orders that 20% of all gold imported must be exported before further imports can be made. Today Indian equity market NIFTY will go to cross life time high. Beyond China and India robust growth in the jewellery sector was also seen in significantly across South East Asia and Turkey. When it comes to important news and events which effects the price of yellow metal, Us nonfarm payroll stood first. On Friday, US nonfarm pay rolls better than expected numbers printed on the street produce more optimism on economy. We expect US economy bottomed out and green shoots visible. Gold tumbles and rebounds from lower levels after the data printed on Friday. From last couple of trading sessions we could see a sharp rebound from lower levels around $1,215-1,211. But gold was unable to sustain on higher levels around 1,255-1,250. Currently, gold is trading at $1,228 in Asian's trading session. It is trading below the red line (21EMA, close). In the hourly charts, it gives a clear picture of expanding lower levels. TECH VIEW- DAILY CHART RESISTANCE - 1,250-1,255, ABOVE THAT 1,264,1,275. CLOSE ABOVE 1,264 COULD LEAD A BIT PULL BACK TOWARDS 1,275 1,295. SUPPORTS - 1,210, BELOW THAT 1,207, 1,195, 1,180, 1,178, 1,150. CLOSE BELOW 1,150 COULD LEAD ALL THE WAT TO STRONG SUPPORT ZONES AT 1,070-1,040 Intra view (hourly chart) - Support 1,217, 1,210 Resistance 1,227, 1,232, 1,236, 1,238, 1,245, 1,255.

Gold remains locked in a range. 1,258/60 is resistance 2013-12-09

Technical outlook and chart setups: The metal has been locked in a trading range between 1,210 and 1,250 for the last several trading sessions. It is recommended to remain flat for now until a breakout is confirmed. The immediate resistance is 1,258/60 levels, followed by 1,300.00 and higher up, while 1,210 is immediate support, followed by 1,180.00 and lower levels respectively. Looking into the bearish structure, it seems that the metal could break lower towards possibly 1,150/30 levels, before developing a reversal case. Please note that the 2008 highs/resistance was around 1,030/40 area, which would be acting as a support level now. One should refrain from buying the yellow metal for now. Trading recommendations: Remain fat for now. Good luck!

Gold analysis for December 9, 2013

Gold prices remain below the 1,245-58 resistance area. We prefer to remain neutral as there is no clear trend in the short term and prices are somewhat oversold in the daily level. Although the longer term trend remains down, we believe that there is increased probability of an upward bounce towards 1,300.
Our elliottwave count expects the final 5th wave to unfold. The wave structure from 1,360 is almost complete. We need one more new low to complete the pattern. Howeber there is also a chance that the 5th wave is a failure and doesn't make a new low. Time will tell, but since prices are consolidating in a triangle, I expect the new low to come soon. The triangle consolidation is a correctie pattern that usually comes before the final move.
The daily chart confirms that trend remains down as prices continue to trade within the downward sloping channel. As long as prices stay below 1,258, we should expect a new low towards 1,200-1,180 to complete the downward move from 1,360. So bears could use 1,258 as stop and bulls the same level as a bullish signal.
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